The End Of Cheap Coffee Is NEAR! MAYBE

Zak Stone reports on what is probably the worst news all. That news is this: we may be approaching a day where coffee is both rare and expensive. This threat comes from two sources. The first is the ever-growing demand for coffee all over the world, especially as more countries develop a strong, robust middle class that requires coffee to function.

Second, there have been a number of impacts to the supply of coffee. Weather causes, possibly fueled by overall climate change, have led to lower crop yields. On top of that, there have been outbreaks of new pests and fungi, as well as some very unstable labor issues in coffee-producing companies. The overall effect is that, as Stone notes, “supply has gone down and demand has gone up.”

This is particularly the case because the coffee beans that produce the best flavors are also among the hardest to produce, because they require particular weather systems to reach a productive peak. Unfortunately, those weather systems are being impacted by the overall changes to the Earth’s climate:

The delicate balance in those ecosystems is being thrown off kilter. In Colombia, the world’s third-biggest coffee producer, agricultural scientist Peter Baker has watched while record rainfall, increased heat, and frequent plagues have devastated farms across the country’s Andean coffee- growing region. It was 2005 when Baker “started to think seriously that climate change was not just about the future but was already happening.” Today, the signs are plentiful. Average temperatures have risen nearly 2 degrees in some areas over the past 30 years, “especially nighttime minimum temperatures,” says Baker, “a tell-tale signature of [man-made] climate change.” Hotter, rainier weather nourishes pests and disease, particularly coffee rust, a fungal plague that’s ascended Colombia’s mountain peaks, which were formerly too chilly for the organism. Heavy rains damage Arabica’s delicate blossoms—the same blossoms that eventually turn into coffee cherries, whose seeds are coffee beans. As heat and pests climb Colombia’s mountains, “the lower limit at which coffee is grown is starting to go up,” says Baker. As growers move higher into the mountains, they run into another problem: mountains have tops.

The results of these climate changes was a decrease in yield. Arabica, the world’s most common bean, has seen diminished yields over the past few years, which has led to a rise in the price of coffee overall. Right now, it looks like that trend is going to continue.

Furthermore, the fact that coffee is a mental stimulant is well-documented. For example, the rise of coffee in the Islamic world in the early Middle Ages is what led to the rise of coffeehouse culture in those countries, which fueled the intellectual ferment that led to the Islamic golden age. Islamic students and scholars, fueled by coffee, revived Greek philosophy and laid the groundwork for the scientific method and modern mathematics. Without coffee, the Renaissance and Enlightenment might never have happened, as they were sparked by Europe’s introduction to the scientific and philosophic works of the Muslim world

It's possible that the modern world and the advance of science are not the direct result of coffee-fueled discussions in Cordoba and other Muslim cities. And the lack of readily-available coffee might not lead to the collapse of science, engineering, and civilization.

But is that really a risk we’re willing to take?

Credits:  Forbes