Nearly 30% Of Americans Likely To Have Diabetes By 2050

The incidence of diabetes, mostly diabetes Type 2, is expected to rise from 8 newly diagnosed cases per thousand in 2008 to approximately 15 by the year 2050, researchers from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and Emory University report in an article published in Popular Health Metrics. Although a rise in diabetes type 2 incidence was expected, mainly because the number of obese and overweight people in America has been steadily rising, nobody expected estimates for the future to be so high, the authors wrote.

Approximately 1 in every 10 American adults currently has diabetes. There are several reasons why numbers are expected to rise, the report says:

* People are becoming fatter. Overweight/obesity are key risk factors for diabetes type 2.
* The percentage of the US population made up of minority groups known to have a higher risk of developing diabetes has been and will be growing
* People with diabetes in America are living longer thanks to better therapies and medications

The authors say their study is the most comprehensive yet on diabetes in America today and its expected incidence and prevalence during the coming decades. They gathered data from the 2000 Census as well as yearly updates up to 2007. They also incorporated specific data on minority groups, as well as individuals with pre-diabetes.

The economic toll of diabetes on the US economy in 2007 was over $174 billion - it is expected to grow considerably in the years and decades to come. Future policymakers need reliable and accurate estimates on the diabetes burden for proper planning of the country's future health care requirements and costs.

The authors estimate that the current 14% adult diabetes prevalence will rise to 21% by 2050 (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases). However, if they factor in longer life-spans for those with diabetes in the future as well as recent increases in the incidence of diabetes, the prevalence will possibly reach 33% by the middle of this century.